Confidence Is Not Evidence

Executive Field Note 049

Confidence changes how information is received.

A confident explanation sounds more complete.

A confident forecast feels more reliable.

A confident leader can make uncertainty seem smaller.

But confidence is information about the person expressing the conclusion.

It is not necessarily information about the conclusion itself.

The two become especially easy to confuse when uncertainty is uncomfortable.

Executive Question:

What would you think of this conclusion if it were presented with less confidence?

Published by Executive Insights. A publication of Axiom Research Press