A Decision Can Be Correct for the Wrong Reason

Executive Field Note 047

A good outcome validates a decision remarkably quickly.

We chose correctly.

The strategy worked.

The analysis was sound.

Perhaps.

But outcomes do not explain themselves.

A favorable result can emerge from flawed reasoning.

An unfavorable result can follow sound judgment under uncertainty.

When outcome and decision quality become the same thing, luck can become expertise.

And good judgment can become failure.

Executive Question:

If you did not know the outcome, how would you evaluate the decision?

Published by Executive Insights. A publication of Axiom Research Press